Tag Archives: The Fed

The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End (Redux): Written Commentary

For those of you who did not have the time to watch the video on this topic, below is a more complete text of what I had to say: Tragedies in Orlando and in England by themselves are difficult to comprehend and clearly represent elements of extremism that indicate some “permission” to behave at the […]
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The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End (Redux): Video Commentary

  Links to Referenced ThinkAdvisor and Blog Content: A Different Liquidity Trap https://altegrisblogs.com/2014/05/28/the-end-of-the-beginning-or-the-beginning-of-the-end/    

The Fed Minutes Are Not As Dovish As The Markets Are Reading Them

We have to wait for Brexit and the July employment numbers before the Fed reacts

Commodities at a Crossroads

Our CEO, Jack Rivkin, recently revisited his thus far prescient view of economic issues facing “The Rest of the Americas.” There are several key drivers one should pay attention to when evaluating the Americas, most of which ultimately lead to the commodity markets. From the Fed’s decision on interest rates (which is highly data dependent), […]
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A Flat Market Year-to-date

If one was fortunate enough to avoid the noise of the first three months of the year, one could point to a flat equity market for the year-to-date (YTD) with the 10-year treasury yield declining from 2.24% to 1.91% as the yield curve flattened. Most were not fortunate enough to avoid the noise and the […]
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Preparing for the Unemployment Numbers in December and January.

Don’t expect much help reading the economy or the markets or the Fed The initial weekly claims data for the week ending December 26th showed a seasonally-adjusted increase of 20,000 from the previous week and raised the 4-week moving average by 4,500 to 277,000. The Department of Labor did note the instability of seasonal factors […]
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An Inflation Wild Card To Watch And…the best disclaimer I have ever read

Inflation In the blog just posted prior to this one, we pointed out that the Fed’s inflation favorite, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, was up only 1.3% year-over-year with the last number actually flat month-over-month. I indicated that inflation could remain lower longer thus leading to a slow rate of increase in the […]
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Good Employment Numbers and The Fed

The Fed, Employment, China, Climate Talks and Argentina

       

Record Low for Unemployment Claims And China’s Disappearance