Tag Archives: Oil

Macro, Markets, and Malarkey

Stocks and Bonds It feels like forever ago, but back in February, the S&P 500 hit its lowest level since 2014 as global growth fears spooked investors, leading to liquidations and deleveraging—most notably for sovereign wealth funds. Fast forward to now…as of the end of July 2016, the S&P 500 closed at 2,173.60—up 7.5% from […]
Read More »

A Flat Market Year-to-date

If one was fortunate enough to avoid the noise of the first three months of the year, one could point to a flat equity market for the year-to-date (YTD) with the 10-year treasury yield declining from 2.24% to 1.91% as the yield curve flattened. Most were not fortunate enough to avoid the noise and the […]
Read More »

A Look at the Year Ahead

Providing some answers to the questions on the media’s minds (and maybe the investors’). This is the time of year when we get a lot of questions regarding our outlook for next year including a call for point estimates on the usual indices and other variables. It is somewhat pointless to provide point estimates, but […]
Read More »

An Inflation Wild Card To Watch And…the best disclaimer I have ever read

Inflation In the blog just posted prior to this one, we pointed out that the Fed’s inflation favorite, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, was up only 1.3% year-over-year with the last number actually flat month-over-month. I indicated that inflation could remain lower longer thus leading to a slow rate of increase in the […]
Read More »

Market Reacts to Paris, IMF, and New Retail Sector Numbers

Paris, China, Russia and the Impact on Risk

The tragic events in Paris on Friday have not only raised the global risk levels of further terrorist actions, but will also produce behavioral changes geopolitically and locally. This will affect markets beginning now. We are already seeing the pulling together of a more coordinated global action against ISIS by the western world. Europe, of […]
Read More »

South America, PE, and the Fed

Watch Friday’s Employment Numbers Last Friday, July 30th, I was invited back to Bloomberg Market Makers with hosts Matt Miller and Scarlet Fu. Katia Porzecanski, who follows the emerging markets, and Tracy Alloway, executive markets editor, joined the sessions. As usual the producers provide some topics a day or so before the appearances to prime […]
Read More »