Tag Archives: Inflation

The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End (Redux): Video Commentary

  Links to Referenced ThinkAdvisor and Blog Content: A Different Liquidity Trap https://altegrisblogs.com/2014/05/28/the-end-of-the-beginning-or-the-beginning-of-the-end/    

Preparing for the Unemployment Numbers in December and January.

Don’t expect much help reading the economy or the markets or the Fed The initial weekly claims data for the week ending December 26th showed a seasonally-adjusted increase of 20,000 from the previous week and raised the 4-week moving average by 4,500 to 277,000. The Department of Labor did note the instability of seasonal factors […]
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A Look at the Year Ahead

Providing some answers to the questions on the media’s minds (and maybe the investors’). This is the time of year when we get a lot of questions regarding our outlook for next year including a call for point estimates on the usual indices and other variables. It is somewhat pointless to provide point estimates, but […]
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An Inflation Wild Card To Watch And…the best disclaimer I have ever read

Inflation In the blog just posted prior to this one, we pointed out that the Fed’s inflation favorite, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, was up only 1.3% year-over-year with the last number actually flat month-over-month. I indicated that inflation could remain lower longer thus leading to a slow rate of increase in the […]
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Employment Triggers a Green Light for a Fed Rate Hike, but…

It’s still a slow growth environment. Inflation is low. Investors can expect continued performance dispersion. Employment is off the table for the Fed As mentioned in our earlier video blog the November employment gain of 211,000 combined with the upward revisions totaling 35,000 for September and October certainly took the employment issue off the table as a […]
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Good Employment Numbers and The Fed