Tag Archives: Dispersion

Fear Is Not An Investment Decision

The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End (Redux): Video Commentary

  Links to Referenced ThinkAdvisor and Blog Content: A Different Liquidity Trap https://altegrisblogs.com/2014/05/28/the-end-of-the-beginning-or-the-beginning-of-the-end/    

The Fed Minutes Are Not As Dovish As The Markets Are Reading Them

We have to wait for Brexit and the July employment numbers before the Fed reacts

A Flat Market Year-to-date

If one was fortunate enough to avoid the noise of the first three months of the year, one could point to a flat equity market for the year-to-date (YTD) with the 10-year treasury yield declining from 2.24% to 1.91% as the yield curve flattened. Most were not fortunate enough to avoid the noise and the […]
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Markets are Macro Right Now, but the Details Don’t Support Those Bets

Just a few observations: Volatility I was waiting for the numbers this morning. As one can see, the US consumer seems to be doing just fine. They are actually buying real goods and services, taking advantage of increased income, transportation costs are down, and there is a generally okay outlook. I think we are seeing […]
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Start the New Year by Ignoring What You’ve Seen Thus Far

  For the full What to Expect in 2016 piece go here: http://bit.ly/WTE2016

A Look at the Year Ahead

Providing some answers to the questions on the media’s minds (and maybe the investors’). This is the time of year when we get a lot of questions regarding our outlook for next year including a call for point estimates on the usual indices and other variables. It is somewhat pointless to provide point estimates, but […]
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Employment Triggers a Green Light for a Fed Rate Hike, but…

It’s still a slow growth environment. Inflation is low. Investors can expect continued performance dispersion. Employment is off the table for the Fed As mentioned in our earlier video blog the November employment gain of 211,000 combined with the upward revisions totaling 35,000 for September and October certainly took the employment issue off the table as a […]
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Thoughts on GDP, Claims and the Fed

  Links to blog post and dispersion performance referenced in commentary above      

Awaiting the Fed—Does it Matter?

Portfolio Repositioning We are still in the midst of portfolio repositioning, as not necessarily a cause of the market’s volatility, but in response to the markets initial decline triggered by China’s move to float its currency and introduce other measures to support the economy as capital flows out of the country. Commodities This has brought […]
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