Tag Archives: China

Q3 2016 Market Update and Outlook: A Golden Summer

At the end of Q2 2016, uncertainty was on the rise, the geopolitical environment was fragile and financial markets appeared highly susceptible to exogenous shocks. Global stock indices wobbled, safe haven trades such as long Japanese yen and long US treasuries gained steam, all while gold rallied in tandem with investor uncertainty. We expected much […]
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The Times They Are A-Changin’

As we approach the end of summer, here’s my perspective on economic issues worth watching. Employment The big new noise is the July employment report. Job growth surged, according to the Department of Labor. The US economy added 255,000 positions, according to the Department of Labor, far more than the 180,000 increase that economists had […]
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The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End (Redux): Video Commentary

  Links to Referenced ThinkAdvisor and Blog Content: A Different Liquidity Trap https://altegrisblogs.com/2014/05/28/the-end-of-the-beginning-or-the-beginning-of-the-end/    

Commodities at a Crossroads

Our CEO, Jack Rivkin, recently revisited his thus far prescient view of economic issues facing “The Rest of the Americas.” There are several key drivers one should pay attention to when evaluating the Americas, most of which ultimately lead to the commodity markets. From the Fed’s decision on interest rates (which is highly data dependent), […]
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The Rest of the Americas: Reprise

We are continuing our review of what has happened since we laid out our expectations in our Perspectives at the beginning of the year. We had a view that one could find all manner of investment opportunities, long and short, without moving beyond the continents of the Americas. Given the volatility of the markets and the […]
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Markets are Macro Right Now, but the Details Don’t Support Those Bets

Just a few observations: Volatility I was waiting for the numbers this morning. As one can see, the US consumer seems to be doing just fine. They are actually buying real goods and services, taking advantage of increased income, transportation costs are down, and there is a generally okay outlook. I think we are seeing […]
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China’s Economic Path

Dr. Barbera has appeared on our blog before with some prescient thoughts. We now have two new posts from him—one on China, and the second on the Fed. Bob’s thoughts on China, published at Johns Hopkins, December 24, 2015, lay out a slightly different view than we are hearing. In the piece below, Bob brings […]
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Not Quite Impotent, but a World Away from Omnipotent

In this blog, Bob says let’s not blame all today’s problems on the US Fed (although some find that tempting). We are in a complex, idiosyncratic, interlinked world. This supports Bob’s view that we have to look at the pieces. Of course, China is a big one.—Jack Rivkin   Not Quite Impotent, but a World […]
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Employment Surprises, But Take That With A Grain Of Salt

See below for employment data:

Start the New Year by Ignoring What You’ve Seen Thus Far

  For the full What to Expect in 2016 piece go here: http://bit.ly/WTE2016