Author Archives: Jack Rivkin

The Times They Are A-Changin’

As we approach the end of summer, here’s my perspective on economic issues worth watching. Employment The big new noise is the July employment report. Job growth surged, according to the Department of Labor. The US economy added 255,000 positions, according to the Department of Labor, far more than the 180,000 increase that economists had […]
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A Different Liquidity Trap

Liquidity has its dangers. The evidence is fairly clear that humans (and that category includes most investors) tend to make economic decisions that are not in their best interest. Liquidity, as it turns out, can enable this irrational behavior. Let me back up. Behavioral finance is a young science that uses psychology to understand irrational […]
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Be Careful What You Wish For

Fear Is Not An Investment Decision

The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End (Redux): Written Commentary

For those of you who did not have the time to watch the video on this topic, below is a more complete text of what I had to say: Tragedies in Orlando and in England by themselves are difficult to comprehend and clearly represent elements of extremism that indicate some “permission” to behave at the […]
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The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End (Redux): Video Commentary

  Links to Referenced ThinkAdvisor and Blog Content: A Different Liquidity Trap https://altegrisblogs.com/2014/05/28/the-end-of-the-beginning-or-the-beginning-of-the-end/    

The Fed Minutes Are Not As Dovish As The Markets Are Reading Them

We have to wait for Brexit and the July employment numbers before the Fed reacts

The Rest of the Americas: Reprise

We are continuing our review of what has happened since we laid out our expectations in our Perspectives at the beginning of the year. We had a view that one could find all manner of investment opportunities, long and short, without moving beyond the continents of the Americas. Given the volatility of the markets and the […]
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Beginning the Look Back at What We Expected for 2016 (and Beyond)

At the beginning of the year we wrote a Perspective on “What to Expect in 2016 (and Beyond).” There were several expectations of which many were not likely to play out until later in the year. For example, our views on commodities staying flat were based on dollar strength and China not beginning its full-fledged fiscal […]
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A Flat Market Year-to-date

If one was fortunate enough to avoid the noise of the first three months of the year, one could point to a flat equity market for the year-to-date (YTD) with the 10-year treasury yield declining from 2.24% to 1.91% as the yield curve flattened. Most were not fortunate enough to avoid the noise and the […]
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